Australia is moving into a drier and potentially more difficult period for agriculture. Still, the picture is more complicated than simply assuming that a strong El Niño will lead to food shortages across the country.
The Bureau of Meteorology confirmed in July 2026 that El Niño was underway. By 11 August, it described the event as firmly established and continuing to intensify. The relative Niño3.4 index reached +2.20°C for the week ending 9 August, well above the Bureau’s +0.80°C El Niño threshold. Current modelling suggests further strengthening through spring, with conditions potentially reaching strong to very strong levels.
Those numbers are significant, but they need some context. The Bureau cautions against drawing a straight line between the strength of El Niño in the tropical Pacific and the amount of rain Australia will receive. El Niño is an important influence, but it is not the only one. The Indian Ocean Dipole, regional sea-surface temperatures and other atmospheric conditions all play a part in shaping Australia’s weather.
What is clearer is that the outlook is becoming uncomfortable for some of the country’s major agricultural regions. The Bureau’s 13 August forecast gives parts of south-eastern Australia, Tasmania and eastern and northern Queensland a 60% to greater than 80% chance of below-average rainfall between September and November. Daytime temperatures are also likely to sit above average south of the tropics. At the same time, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may develop and persist through spring, adding another possible drying influence.
From the Weather Map to the Paddock
For farmers, the issue is not simply how much rain falls over the course of a year. When it falls can be just as important. Winter and spring rainfall influences planting decisions, soil moisture, pasture growth, crop development and the amount of feed available for livestock.
ABARES was already seeing signs of pressure before the current El Niño reached its present strength. Its June 2026 Australian Crop Report forecast national winter crop production to fall by 21% to 54.5 million tonnes in 2026–27. Even after that decline, production would remain around 4% above the 10-year average. That distinction matters. Australia is looking at a substantial fall from the previous season, not the disappearance of its grain supply.
Queensland shows just how uneven those conditions can be. ABARES forecast the state’s winter crop production to fall 38% to 2.4 million tonnes, reflecting reduced planting and lower expected yields in the face of poor soil moisture and an unfavourable rainfall outlook. Wheat production was expected to drop by almost 43%, barley by 32% and chickpeas by roughly one-third.
Does That Mean Food Prices Are About to Explode?
Not necessarily.
Rainfall is only one part of what Australians eventually pay at the supermarket. Australia is a major agricultural producer and exporter, and food prices are also shaped by international commodity markets, fuel and fertiliser costs, labour, processing, transport, exchange rates, retailer competition and global supply.
ABARES currently expects the gross value of agricultural production to decline by 5% to $98.3 billion in 2026–27, while the value of agricultural exports is forecast to fall by 9% to $74.8 billion. Those figures point to a more difficult year for the sector, but they do not translate neatly into a particular increase in grocery prices.
Dry weather can still make its way through the food supply chain in less obvious ways. When pasture growth deteriorates, livestock producers may need more supplementary feed. A smaller grain harvest can put pressure on feed availability and costs. Horticultural businesses that rely heavily on irrigation may become increasingly exposed to changes in water availability and pricing.
Livestock markets can be particularly counterintuitive. As conditions dry out, some producers may reduce herd or flock numbers because keeping animals becomes more expensive. That can temporarily put more livestock onto the market rather than creating an immediate shortage of meat. What happens later depends on how long the dry conditions last, how widespread they become and how quickly producers are able to rebuild stock.
For that reason, talk of an inevitable “food crisis” through 2027 goes further than the evidence currently supports. A more useful conclusion is that Australia has entered a strong El Niño while several important agricultural regions are already dealing with challenging seasonal conditions. That combination increases production and financial risks as the country moves through spring and towards summer.
And the implications do not stop at the supermarket. For some property buyers, they can reach all the way to the title and contract.
When Water Becomes Part of the Property Question
Anyone inspecting a rural or semi-rural property in NSW can easily be drawn to what is visible: the acreage, paddocks, dams, sheds or irrigation infrastructure. Yet the legal position surrounding water can matter just as much as the physical features of the land.
A water access licence (WAL), for example, can exist separately from the land itself. WaterNSW advises purchasers to establish whether a WAL is actually included in the contract of sale. If it is, the licence title needs to be transferred through NSW Land Registry Services alongside the property. Certain specific-purpose licences associated with domestic or stock use also have their own transfer requirements rather than simply passing automatically to the new landowner.
When rainfall is plentiful, that distinction might seem technical. During a dry period, it can become a very practical issue.
Flash Conveyancing Advice
If you are buying rural, acreage or peri-urban property, do not assume that a dam, bore or irrigation system automatically gives you unrestricted water rights. Before exchange, establish what water access licence, entitlement or approval exists, whether it is included in the sale, what interests are recorded against it and what is required to transfer it.
Flash Conveyancing, led by Julian & Renee, assists buyers, sellers and investors with property transactions across NSW. Their approach is straightforward and personal: identify title and contractual issues early, explain their practical significance in plain English and make sure clients understand the transaction before they become legally committed.
Flash Conveyancing assists clients throughout Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong, as well as the Blacktown, Hawkesbury, Blue Mountains, The Hills, Hornsby and Parramatta areas. The practice also services Acacia Gardens, Angus, Arndell Park, Blacktown, Colebee, Glendenning, Glenwood, Grantham Farm, Kellyville Ridge, Kings Langley, Marsden Park, Melonba, Oakhurst, Parklea, Quakers Hill, Riverstone, Schofields, Seven Hills, Stanhope Gardens, Tallawong, The Ponds, Baulkham Hills, Beaumont Hills, Bella Vista, Castle Hill, Kellyville, Kenthurst, North Rocks, Northmead, Rouse Hill, Vineyard, Windsor, Annangrove, Box Hill, Cattai, Dural, Gables, Galston, Glenhaven, Glenorie, Maraylya, Middle Dural, Nelson, North Kellyville, Norwest and Winston Hills, along with property transactions elsewhere across NSW.
The current El Niño is a timely reminder that property never exists entirely separately from its surroundings. For someone buying a suburban home, water rights may barely enter the conversation. For a buyer considering acreage, agricultural land or a regional property, they can be fundamental to how that property functions and what it is ultimately worth to them.
You cannot write next season’s rainfall into a contract. But you can investigate your rights to the land and its water before you sign one. In a dry year, that difference can matter far more than it first appears.
